APEDE


O mito do Estado gastador

Posted in Finanças e Mentiras por APEDE em 12/10/2010

Já ontem nos referimos a este estudo fundamental. Ele devia ser de leitura obrigatória para todos os que tentam compreender, de forma não enviesada, a crise actual que nos querem impor.

O discurso unanimista dominante tem-nos inculcado, até à náusea, a ideia de que a culpa da crise é do Estado gastador e, em última análise, dos malvados funcionários públicos. Ora, o estudo acima citado deita completamente por terra esse mito, mostrando implicitamente que ele não passa de pura propaganda para lavagem de cérebros. Quando nos vêm falar da dívida ciclópica de países como Espanha, Portugal e Grécia, os pseudo-“experts” omitem, estrategicamente, o facto de nessa dívida o sector privado ter um peso incomensuravelmente superior ao sector público. Escondem também o facto de que, à conta do famigerado Pacto de Estabilidade e Crescimento imposto pela adesão ao euro, os défices orçamentais desses países terem sido genericamente baixos – e muito mais baixos quando os comparamos com o défice norte-americano.

Fica aqui uma citação de uma passagem desse estudo que sintetiza bem o que acabámos de referir:

Portugal maintained a broadly balanced budget, with modest deficits for short periods of time, and roughly the same holds true for Greece. As for Spain, the country ran steady primary balance surpluses throughout the period. Fiscal deficits rose across the three countries in 2008-9, but that was clearly the result of falling tax revenues due to the recession as well as states attempting to maintain demand. There was a bulge in public deficits in 2008-9 that has certainly accounted for the sharpening of peripheral indebtedness, but not for the accumulated volume of debt. To put it differently, the Stability and Growth Pact, which is an integral part of European Monetary Union, might have been occasionally breached but, on the whole, forced peripheral countries to comply with fiscal conservatism. The Spanish state has proven more conservative even than the German state, though it has not received much of a reward for its virtue.

The key macroeconomic factors contributing to the accumulation of external debt by the periphery seem clear. Peripheral countries lost competitiveness relative to the core, and thus faced current account deficits which were financed from abroad. The current account deficits had little to do with the public sector of peripheral countries, which did not generate systematic financial deficits, even though it has often been described as profligate and inefficient. Rather, the current account deficits were associated with private sector financial deficits. Unable to compete with the core countries of the monetary union, the private sector of peripheral countries reacted in ways that produced systematic financial deficits. Thus, in Spain, there was an investment bubble pivoting on real estate, while in Greece and Portugal, private saving collapsed as consumption remained at high levels. The financial deficits of the private sector matched the accumulation of external debt, which financed the current account deficit.

Mas não se fiquem por aqui. Vejam os números e as tabelas publicados nesse estudo e pasmem sobre como temos estado a ser enganados pela propaganda dominante!


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